On Tuesday (December 3rd), spot gold slightly increased, trading near $2639.52. The ongoing skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel have intensified concerns over the fragile ceasefire agreement, thereby supporting the safe-haven demand for gold. While the ceasefire hasn’t entirely collapsed, the uncertainty in the Middle East continues to pressure the market, causing gold prices to fluctuate within a low volatility range.
In the energy market, international oil prices are steady around $68.12 per barrel. Strong demand and geopolitical risks in the Middle East are the main limiting factors against oil price decreases. Despite heightened concerns over global economic growth, geopolitical tensions are preventing a significant drop in oil prices. The tension in the Middle East, especially the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, continues to push oil prices higher, as the market fears further deterioration could impact global oil supply.
Recently, Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for a rate cut in December, unless significant data surprises occur. Waller noted that the current policy rate is already restrictive, and a rate cut would help maintain flexibility in monetary policy, allowing room for future economic changes. If economic data and inflation expectations align, the Fed may keep rates unchanged. Waller's statement increased market expectations for a possible rate cut at the Fed's December meeting, thereby supporting global market sentiment.
In the stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.29% on Monday, closing at 44,782.00 points, while the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.24% to 6047.15 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.97%, closing at 19,403.95 points. The market volatility reflects investors’ heightened attention to economic data and geopolitical situations.
Today's market focus is on the US October JOLTs job openings data, offering insights into the labor market's tightness. Additionally, Switzerland's November CPI annual rate and Australia’s third-quarter current account data will be released today, influencing assessments of each country’s economic status, thus affecting market sentiment. Furthermore, Japan will conduct questions from party representatives, which is expected to influence market expectations of the country's economic policies.
In summary, the current market environment is complex, with gold and oil prices fluctuating due to geopolitical risks, while expectations for Fed rate cuts are providing support to global financial markets. Investors will continue monitoring economic data and further developments in the Middle East to gauge future market trends.
