After a significant rise in the previous trading day, soybean futures have retreated, mainly due to market expectations that China may launch an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola, which could shift trade to soybeans. However, widespread concerns about weak Chinese demand have limited the gains.
As of 19:36 Beijing time, the most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose by 0.7% to $5.70-3/4 per bushel, having earlier hit $5.71-1/2 per bushel, its highest point since July 11; corn contracts edged up 0.1% to $4.09-1/2 per bushel, close to the one-month high set on Tuesday; soybean contracts fell 0.4% to $10.07-1/2 per bushel, pulling back from the four-week high reached the previous day.
The prices of the three major agricultural products have all rebounded from near four-year lows. Prices were boosted on Tuesday due to heightened market risk aversion and short covering.
Argus analysts stated in a report: "The recent price rebound has been driven by short covering, a revival in U.S. grain export demand, and worsening end-of-season drought in the Corn Belt."
As seasonal supply pressures in the Northern Hemisphere diminish, market focus is gradually shifting to the Southern Hemisphere, with analysts closely monitoring the upward trend in prices. Rod Beck, a crop forecasting expert in Perth, Australia, stated: "Prices seem to be near the bottom."
In a report released after the close on Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture stated that last week's corn crop conditions remained stable, exceeding analysts' average expectations, while the weekly rating decline for soybean crops was greater than expected.
Traders are evaluating whether the end-of-season drought will affect earlier expectations of a bumper harvest for corn and soybeans.
Canola futures fell further by about 1%, though it was more moderated compared to Tuesday as the market awaits further results from China’s investigation into Canadian shipments. Lower crude oil prices, weak palm oil futures, and ongoing concerns about Chinese demand have also pressured the oilseed market.
As for the wheat market, although the rapid export of cheap wheat from the Black Sea region continues to pressure prices, the poor harvest in Western Europe is seen as a factor supporting the market.
