On the night of February 24, after the market closed, the United States announced a new round of sanctions against Iran's shadow fleet, causing oil prices to fluctuate and ultimately close slightly higher. Previously, oil prices had struggled, impacted by last Friday night's sharp drop, leading to a bleak market sentiment. The bulls failed to effectively rebound, and the domestic crude oil sector performed weakly, making it a leader in the downturn of the commodity market. The fundamental reason for oil price volatility remains the continuous impact of the United States on the international market.
Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached its third anniversary, and the mineral resource agreement negotiations between Ukraine and the United States are in the final stages. If favorable progress is achieved in the mineral agreement, it is widely anticipated that the United States may adopt a tougher stance in US-Russia negotiations, potentially implementing pressure tactics. US President Trump stated on Monday that Russian President Putin is willing to accept the proposal of Europe dispatching peacekeeping forces to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump's goal of swiftly ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict does not align with Russia's stance. Putin perceives Trump's position as biased towards Ukraine rather than Russia's interests, and future engagements with the United States will primarily focus on bilateral relations.
In the oil sector, the United States continues to intensify sanctions against Iran. Previously, the US had requested Iran to increase oil exports, with Iraq expressing active cooperation and advancing its oil export operations. Meanwhile, Iraq has shifted the responsibility to Turkey, urging Turkey to promptly resume exports through the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline. Iraq has stated it expects a response from Turkey within 24 hours and emphasized its commitment to complying with OPEC+'s production decisions to ensure its oil export volume is kept under the organization's control, striving to avoid trouble for itself.
As February comes to an end, the market is gradually shifting its focus to OPEC+'s production plans after April. Increasingly, institutions believe that OPEC+ may continue to delay output increases to maintain market supply and demand balance. There remains significant uncertainty in the market regarding the future direction of oil prices, and investors need to closely monitor future policy changes and global geopolitical and economic circumstances.
Overall, oil prices face a complex situation of mixed factors, and although strengthened US sanctions provide some support to oil prices, the momentum for price increases is gradually weakening. It is expected that oil prices will continue to oscillate within the recent range, and the market needs to carefully manage the pace to address potential volatility risks.
