September Volatility Brings New Technical Signals for Bitcoin
Following one of its strongest August rallies since 2017, Bitcoin (BTC) encountered renewed volatility in early September. Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and robust U.S. employment data put pressure on risk assets, pushing Bitcoin’s price down from around $81,000 to approximately $77,000 in the first days of the month. Despite this dip, Bitcoin’s daily chart registered a golden cross—a bullish technical pattern long awaited by traders—which has sparked optimism about a potential turning point in the prolonged bear market.
Understanding the Daily Golden Cross and Its Constraints
A golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average, commonly viewed as a sign of upward momentum. Bitcoin last posted a daily golden cross in May 2025, which preceded a price rally exceeding 16%. However, research firm BloFin cautions against interpreting the daily golden cross alone as confirmation of a bullish trend. They emphasize the need for corroborating signals from weekly moving averages to verify a sustainable market reversal.
Weekly 200- and 50-Period Moving Averages Under Scrutiny
BloFin’s analysis points to the critical role of Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (200W MA) in identifying cycle lows, with the 50-week moving average (50W MA) serving as a stronger trend confirmation indicator. Presently, Bitcoin has climbed above the 200W MA, signaling tentative recovery from long-term lows, but it has yet to break past the 50W MA. This incomplete weekly crossover suggests that the bearish market structure remains intact for now.
Significance of the 200-Week Moving Average in Bitcoin’s History
Historically, Bitcoin has spent most of its life above the 200W MA, which has acted as a reliable support zone during cycle bottoms seen in years like 2015, 2018, and the brief downturn in March 2020. Unlike the long-term moving averages of the S&P 500 or gold, Bitcoin’s 200W MA has rarely turned downward on the weekly chart, demonstrating steady upward momentum and underpinning confidence in its long-term valuation floor.
The 50-Week Moving Average as a Key Inflection Point
The 50W MA has traditionally marked the boundary between Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets. Past bear market culminations in 2014, 2018, 2021, and late 2025 correlated with Bitcoin falling below this line. Conversely, bull markets resumed following Bitcoin’s recovery above the 50W MA in 2015, 2019, and 2023. Establishing firm support above this weekly average is widely viewed as critical for signaling a definitive end to the bear phase.
Balancing Early Optimism with Confirmed Trend Reversals
BloFin notes that while waiting for weekly confirmation at the 50W MA might mean missing out on some initial gains, it provides firmer evidence for a genuine trend change. The recent daily golden cross represents a positive development, but investors must observe whether Bitcoin can sustain a break above the 50W MA to confidently declare the bear market concluded and a new bull run underway.