According to the latest analysis by Goldman Sachs, although the Middle East conflict has caused disruptions in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, slowing the flow of crude oil and refined products and intensifying global energy supply chain pressures, it has not yet developed into a structural global oil shortage. Measures such as overall inventory allocation, alternative supply sources, and export restrictions by some countries have alleviated short-term gaps, indicating that the global market still retains some resilience. Goldman Sachs noted that the impact varies across different regions worldwide, with Asia being the most affected due to its high dependence on supplies from the Persian Gulf.
Asia's Vulnerability
Goldman's analysis points out that many Asian economies rely heavily on importing refined oil products from the Persian Gulf. Regional samples show that approximately half of the fuel supply in several countries comes from this region, with dependency rates closer to 70% to 75% in countries like South Korea and Singapore. With the slowdown in Persian Gulf export flows, Asia's net oil imports significantly decreased by the end of March, reflecting the accumulation of supply pressures.
Moreover, certain Asian countries already have low inventories of refined products compared to other regions, making their markets more sensitive to external supply disruptions. Goldman particularly highlighted the diminishing stocks and more complex storage requirements for petrochemical raw materials such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which are the first to show signs of tightness.
Fuel Prices and Supply Signals
Goldman has observed a noticeable increase in current fuel prices, especially for diesel and jet fuel, on a global scale. This partly reflects supply constraints and preventative stockpiling behavior in various countries. The price trend not only directly responds to short-term supply inadequacies but also creates chain effects on transportation, aviation, and industrial production.
Simultaneously, trade flow data indicates that the export shipment speed of crude oil and refined oil from the Persian Gulf began to evidently slow down in late March, leading to a decline in Asian imports, suggesting an expanding risk window regarding market dependence on external sources.
On-the-Ground Signs and Responses
In Goldman's analysis, apart from price signals, there are tangible signs of supply tightness emerging in some countries, including fuel rationing warnings and a slowdown in industrial activities due to raw material shortages. These "real signals" have not covered the globe entirely but are becoming apparent in specific Asian markets.
Nevertheless, Goldman believes that major economies like China and Japan, with substantial strategic reserves, are better positioned to cushion the impact through inventory releases and diversified import channels, thus preventing a genuine global oil depletion in the short term.
Future Risks
Goldman warns that the current buffer might be temporary. If the disruption of transport capacity through the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate or if the conflict spreads to more extensive export infrastructure, the risks of localized shortages and significant price surges may intensify. Particularly for regions like Asia, which heavily rely on imports, accumulated deficits could trigger further physical supply tensions and cause a ripple effect on the economy.
